President Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran just before his 8 PM deadline Tuesday night. Iran accepted, conditional on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with formal talks set to begin Friday in Islamabad. Oil crashed immediately — WTI dropped roughly 15% to about $95.63, the largest single-day oil drop since the 1991 Gulf War. Overnight, the rally went global: the Nikkei rebounded about 5%, Dubai's DFM surged over 6%, S&P 500 futures climbed 2.5%, and the dollar weakened. This is real relief — but it is a ceasefire, not a peace deal. Oil is still up over 70% this year.

Markets recouped roughly half their losses since the war began in a single overnight session. S&P 500 futures jumped 2.5%, Dow futures surged over 900 points, and Treasury yields dropped as traders priced in less inflation risk. But there is a catch: shipping experts say most companies will not re-enter the Strait of Hormuz right away. Iran still controls the toll and route. Traffic through the strait is still down over 90% from normal. The rally priced in a best-case scenario — the reality of reopening will take time.

Gasoline futures fell to $2.95 per gallon on April 8, down 10.8% from the day before. But the national average at the pump is still above $4, and it typically takes 2-3 weeks for wholesale drops to reach consumers. JP Morgan analysts warned that if the ceasefire fails, gas could hit $5 per gallon. The practical move: keep your fuel budget where it is. If prices drop, redirect the savings to debt or your emergency fund — do not absorb it into lifestyle spending.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases March CPI data on Friday, April 10 at 8:30 AM ET. Forecasters project headline CPI at +0.8% month-over-month and +3.2% year-over-year — almost entirely driven by gasoline's roughly 30% monthly surge. Core CPI is expected at +2.5% year-over-year, still relatively tame. That distinction matters: this is a one-channel inflation event for now. If core stays low, the Fed has room to eventually cut. If energy starts bleeding into core, the higher-for-longer path gets even longer. Friday's number will set the tone for the next few weeks.

Iran agreed to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but maritime experts say most shipping companies will not risk re-entering a war zone on a two-week window. Traffic is still down over 90% from normal. Iran controls the route and may charge fees for passage. Vessels that are stuck inside the strait will likely leave, but few new ships will enter. That means the supply chain disruption is not over even if the ceasefire holds. For your money, the takeaway is the same: plan around what is real today, not what might happen if everything goes perfectly.

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