The March FOMC meeting minutes, released April 8, show most officials still expect at least one rate cut this year, provided inflation continues easing. The Fed voted 11-1 to hold rates at 3.5%–3.75%; the lone dissent came from Governor Miran, who wanted to cut now. The backdrop is fragile: GDP grew just 0.7% in Q4 2025, the labor market is described as "susceptible to negative shocks," and officials acknowledged that if the Middle East conflict pushes gas prices higher and dents consumer spending, more accommodation may be warranted, but persistent inflation from the same source could also force hikes. The ceasefire news has already nudged traders toward pricing in an earlier cut.

What this means for you: Rate cuts aren't guaranteed, but the Fed has not closed the door. If you're watching mortgage rates or carrying variable-rate debt, the most useful posture is patience over prediction, stay ready, not reactive.

Total mortgage applications fell 0.8% for the week ending April 3, a much smaller drop than the -10.5% declines seen in prior weeks. The 30-year fixed rate edged down to 6.51% from 6.57%, offering modest relief. The refinance index dropped 3% to its lowest level since December 2025, and refi share slipped to 44.3%. The bright spot: the purchase index rose 1% week-over-week, with FHA purchase apps up 5% (FHA rates run roughly 30 basis points below conventional). Purchase applications are still down 7% year-over-year, the first annual decline since January 2025.

What this means for you: Buyers are slowly re-engaging as rates inch lower, even while refinance activity stalls. If you're shopping for a home, FHA loans are worth a fresh look if you haven't run the numbers lately. If you're waiting for rates to drop sharply before buying, the data suggests the market isn't waiting with you.

The Dow surged 1,325 points (+2.85%) to close at 47,909.92, its best single-day gain since April 2025. The S&P 500 rose 2.5% and the Nasdaq gained 2.8%, extending a sixth consecutive day of gains. Treasury yields fell as traders priced in a greater likelihood of a rate cut following the ceasefire. Energy was the notable exception: APA, Occidental, and Diamondback each fell more than 7%; Exxon and Chevron dropped more than 5%. WTI crude settled at $94.41/barrel, down roughly 16% on the day — though oil is still up approximately 70% year-to-date. Diesel and natural gas futures also dropped.

What this means for you: The rally is real, but it's uneven. Energy stocks are telling you the market is already pricing in a scenario where the ceasefire holds and oil keeps falling - that's a guess, not a guarantee. Broad diversification continues to do its job on days like this.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases March CPI data tomorrow, April 10, at 8:30 AM ET. Forecasts call for +3.2% year-over-year headline - the hottest reading since mid-2022 - and +2.5% core. The Cleveland Fed nowcast pegs the monthly gain at +0.84%, driven almost entirely by gasoline's roughly 30% monthly surge. More on that tomorrow.

A 1,300-point day is exciting. It's also not a signal to do anything. Here's a grounding checklist for this week:

The market will have another bad week. Possibly soon. The goal isn't to time around it, it's to not panic when it comes.

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