March Inflation Hits 3.3% - Biggest Monthly Spike in Years

The BLS released the March Consumer Price Index this morning, showing prices rose 0.9% for the month and 3.3% over the past year - the highest annual rate since April 2024 and nearly a full percentage point above February's 2.4% reading. The surge was driven almost entirely by energy: gasoline jumped roughly $1 per gallon in March as the U.S.-Iran conflict disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at 2.7% annually - elevated, but steadier than the headline number. The March print also beat expectations: forecasters had penciled in 3.2% headline and 2.5% core, meaning even the underlying pressure came in hotter than anticipated.

What this means for you: The war-driven energy shock is now officially showing up in government data. If you have variable-rate debt, an adjustable mortgage, or haven't looked hard at your monthly budget since gas crossed $4 a gallon, this is the moment to do that.

Oil Rebounded to $98-100 Even After the Ceasefire - Here's Why That Matters

Despite the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced Thursday, WTI crude bounced back to near $98-100 per barrel heading into Friday - above the $94 close from Thursday's initial relief drop. The reason: the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Shipping companies are not sending tankers back through the corridor until there is more certainty, and Iranian-controlled routes are still effectively restricted. Stock futures were little changed Friday morning as markets waited on the CPI data, and oil briefly crossed $100 per barrel in the session.

What this means for you: Gas prices will not fall quickly even if the ceasefire holds. The supply disruption has not been resolved - it has been paused. Plan your fuel and grocery budgets around costs staying elevated for at least several more weeks.

Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Was Already at 3% Before the War Even Started

New data released Thursday showed the PCE price index - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure - was running at 3.0% annually in February, before any energy shock hit. That baseline, now compounded by this morning's 3.3% CPI print, has effectively closed the door on rate cuts for the foreseeable future. The Fed meets April 28-29, and market pricing reflects near-zero probability of a cut. The federal funds rate holds at 3.5%-3.75%.

What this means for you: Rate relief is not coming from the Fed anytime soon. If you are carrying a HELOC, adjustable-rate mortgage, or high-interest credit card balance, waiting for the Fed to bail you out is not a strategy. Locking in fixed rates now or aggressively paying down variable-rate debt is the cleaner path.

Mortgage Rates Edge Down to 6.37% - the Spring Window Is Open

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.37% this week per Freddie Mac, down from 6.46% the prior week and the lowest reading in several weeks. The 15-year fixed dropped to 5.74%. The dip is tied to bond market movement ahead of today's inflation data - and rates could shift again now that the 3.3% CPI number is out. Spring inventory is improving in many markets, and buyers who have been sitting out are slowly re-engaging.

What this means for you: A 30-year fixed in the mid-6s is not 2020 pricing, but it is better than anything we saw in 2025. If you have the down payment and the income, waiting indefinitely has its own cost. Have the rate-lock conversation with your lender now, before this week's inflation data pushes yields higher.

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